市場結算

事件發生 → Oracle 報告 → 爭議期 → 最終結算 → 用戶贖回

**數據源**：美聯社（AP）、路透社、彭博社等權威媒體

**結算時間**：官方結果公布後 48 小時

**爭議處理**：如有重大爭議，延長結算時間

問題：誰將贏得 2024 年美國總統大選？

結算規則：
1. 數據源：美聯社、CNN、福克斯新聞中至少兩家宣布獲勝者
2. 時間：選舉日後，當獲勝者獲得 270 張選舉人票
3. 特殊情況：如選舉結果被推翻，市場可能重新結算

from py_clob_client.client import ClobClient
import requests

# 使用 Subgraph 查詢
SUBGRAPH_URL = "https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/polymarket/polymarket"

def check_settlement_status(condition_id):
    """
    檢查市場是否已結算
    """
    query = """
    query CheckSettlement($conditionId: String!) {
      condition(id: $conditionId) {
        id
        resolved
        resolveTimestamp
        payouts
      }
    }
    """
    
    response = requests.post(
        SUBGRAPH_URL,
        json={'query': query, 'variables': {'conditionId': condition_id}}
    )
    
    data = response.json()['data']['condition']
    
    if data['resolved']:
        print(f"✓ 市場已結算")
        print(f"結算時間: {data['resolveTimestamp']}")
        print(f"支付向量: {data['payouts']}")
        
        # 判斷獲勝方
        if data['payouts'][0] > data['payouts'][1]:
            print("獲勝方: Yes")
        elif data['payouts'][1] > data['payouts'][0]:
            print("獲勝方: No")
        else:
            print("結果: 無效/平局")
    else:
        print("✗ 市場尚未結算")
    
    return data['resolved']

# 使用示例
condition_id = "0x1234..."
check_settlement_status(condition_id)

interface SettlementStatus {
  resolved: boolean;
  resolveTimestamp?: string;
  payouts?: number[];
  winner?: 'Yes' | 'No' | 'Invalid';
}

async function checkSettlement(conditionId: string): Promise<SettlementStatus> {
  const query = `
    query {
      condition(id: "${conditionId}") {
        id
        resolved
        resolveTimestamp
        payouts
      }
    }
  `;
  
  const response = await fetch(SUBGRAPH_URL, {
    method: 'POST',
    headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
    body: JSON.stringify({ query })
  });
  
  const data = await response.json();
  const condition = data.data.condition;
  
  if (condition.resolved) {
    const winner = condition.payouts[0] > condition.payouts[1] 
      ? 'Yes' 
      : condition.payouts[1] > condition.payouts[0] 
        ? 'No' 
        : 'Invalid';
    
    return {
      resolved: true,
      resolveTimestamp: condition.resolveTimestamp,
      payouts: condition.payouts,
      winner
    };
  }
  
  return { resolved: false };
}

Yes 代幣: 1 USDC
No 代幣: 0 USDC

Yes 代幣: 0.5 USDC
No 代幣: 0.5 USDC

Yes 代幣: 0.7 USDC
No 代幣: 0.3 USDC

爭議質押: 通常 1000-10000 UMA
時間: 48-96 小時
風險: 如果爭議失敗，質押會被沒收

import time
from datetime import datetime

def monitor_settlements(condition_ids):
    """
    持續監控多個市場的結算狀態
    """
    settled = set()
    
    while len(settled) < len(condition_ids):
        print(f"\n[{datetime.now()}] 检查结算状态...")
        
        for condition_id in condition_ids:
            if condition_id in settled:
                continue
            
            try:
                status = check_settlement_status(condition_id)
                
                if status:
                    print(f"✓ 市场 {condition_id[:8]}... 已结算")
                    settled.add(condition_id)
                    
                    # 可以在这里自动赎回
                    # redeem_tokens(condition_id)
                else:
                    print(f"○ 市场 {condition_id[:8]}... 等待结算")
                    
            except Exception as e:
                print(f"✗ 查询失败: {e}")
        
        if len(settled) < len(condition_ids):
            print(f"\n等待中... ({len(settled)}/{len(condition_ids)} 已结算)")
            time.sleep(300)  # 5分钟后再检查
    
    print("\n所有市场已结算完成!")

# 使用示例
markets_to_monitor = [
    "0xabc123...",
    "0xdef456...",
    "0x789ghi..."
]

monitor_settlements(markets_to_monitor)

from web3 import Web3

def auto_redeem_on_settlement(condition_id, winning_side):
    """
    市场结算后自动赎回
    """
    # CTF 合约
    ctf_contract = w3.eth.contract(
        address='0x4D97DCd97eC945f40cF65F87097ACe5EA0476045',
        abi=ctf_abi
    )
    
    # 确定赎回的索引集
    if winning_side == 'Yes':
        index_sets = [1]
    elif winning_side == 'No':
        index_sets = [2]
    else:  # Invalid
        index_sets = [1, 2]
    
    # 赎回代币
    tx = ctf_contract.functions.redeemPositions(
        usdc_address,
        '0x' + '0' * 64,
        condition_id,
        index_sets
    ).build_transaction({
        'from': your_address,
        'nonce': w3.eth.get_transaction_count(your_address)
    })
    
    signed_tx = w3.eth.account.sign_transaction(tx, private_key)
    tx_hash = w3.eth.send_raw_transaction(signed_tx.rawTransaction)
    
    print(f"赎回交易: {tx_hash.hex()}")
    receipt = w3.eth.wait_for_transaction_receipt(tx_hash)
    
    print(f"✓ 赎回成功")
    return receipt

事件发生: 2024-11-05 20:00 (选举日)
          ↓
初步结果: 2024-11-06 02:00 (+6小时)
          ↓
Oracle 提交: 2024-11-06 10:00 (+14小时)
          ↓
争议期开始: 2024-11-06 10:00
争议期结束: 2024-11-08 10:00 (+48小时)
          ↓
最终结算: 2024-11-08 10:00
          ↓
用户赎回: 随时可进行

def get_settlement_history(days=30):
    """
    获取过去N天的结算历史
    """
    import time
    
    timestamp = int(time.time()) - (days * 24 * 3600)
    
    query = """
    query RecentSettlements($timestamp: Int!) {
      conditions(
        where: { 
          resolved: true
          resolveTimestamp_gt: $timestamp
        }
        orderBy: resolveTimestamp
        orderDirection: desc
        first: 100
      ) {
        id
        questionId
        resolveTimestamp
        payouts
      }
    }
    """
    
    response = requests.post(
        SUBGRAPH_URL,
        json={'query': query, 'variables': {'timestamp': timestamp}}
    )
    
    settlements = response.json()['data']['conditions']
    
    print(f"过去 {days} 天共结算 {len(settlements)} 个市场:\n")
    
    for s in settlements[:10]:  # 显示前10个
        print(f"条件 ID: {s['id'][:10]}...")
        print(f"结算时间: {s['resolveTimestamp']}")
        print(f"支付向量: {s['payouts']}")
        print("---")
    
    return settlements